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| Example of the maps contained in the SADC Climate Change Handbook. This map illustrates seasonal change in maximum temperature. View larger version
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In the agricultural sector, higher temperatures can cause heat stress in crops and livestock; as well as provide a more conducive habitat for pests and pathogens.
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Climate change impacts are likely to include impacts on both water supply and quality, particularly as a result of higher temperatures and evapotranspiration.
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Dr Emma Archer van Garderen, CSIR Natural Resources & the Environment
In the SADC Climate Change Handbook that has just been published in South Africa, a range of different climate projections are compared for areas of agreement and disagreement, to provide "working messages" around what we can expect from climate change in the southern African region.
Given the availability of a number of climate change projections (a very desirable outcome), one of the tasks of climate scientists is to distil key areas of agreement, to show those findings 'workable' for future planning.
Essentially, a range of models indicate higher average, minimum and maximum temperatures, particularly for the interior of the subcontinent. With regard to rainfall, lower rainfall for the south-western portion of the subcontinent is likely for the June-July-August season, with possible changes in the October-November-December rainfall for the summer rainfall region also evident.
Selected impacts are likely to include impacts on both water supply and quality, particularly as a result of higher temperatures and evapotranspiration. In the agricultural sector, higher temperatures can cause heat stress in crops and livestock; as well as provide a more conducive habitat for pests and pathogens.
In human health, certain vulnerable groups are likely to be more affected by heat stress - namely the elderly, the young and the immuno-suppressed. Lastly, the latter is likely to be more of a challenge in urban areas, prompting, for example, a number of evolving discussions on management of heatwave events in cities, such as the recent initiatives by the City of Johannesburg.
Such a context in southern Africa makes the outcomes of the climate change negotiations in Durban particularly critical. Mitigation issues are likely to be central in the negotiations, with the possibility of a second commitment period (2012-2016) for the Kyoto Protocol comprising a key theme.
Unfortunately, to date, little political will has been demonstrated to support a second commitment period. In the absence of an agreement for a second commitment period in Durban, no legally binding framework will commit countries to emissions cuts. Prior to the meeting, expectations in this regard remain very moderate.
Secondly, agendas around adaptation for a range of countries, as well as decisions around finance remain fairly fragmented even so shortly before the start of the Durban meetings. How support for adaptation will evolve, linked to clear and credible finance mechanisms, will not only comprise a key focus of the negotiations themselves, but also of many side event dialogues.
Essentially, South Africa, as well as other SADC member states, can look to itself and its neighbours for the key resources of information and human capacity to move adaptation forward.
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